The world isn’t prepared to tackle emerging systemic risks — but it can be

In an era of polycrisis, the world faces interconnected risks across health, food systems, the economy, and the environment. One organization proposes a unified approach to address these overlapping threats for maximum impact.

Photo: Climate Justice Charter movement

Photo: Climate Justice Charter movement

Fraught with intense geopolitics that are seeing governments back away from action, funding shortfalls, and heightened levels of conflict, hunger, and environmental degradation, it could be said that 2025 is one of the most high-risk contexts yet for international development. Decision-makers are, however, ill-equipped to handle these multifaceted, interconnected risks, and their cascading impacts, according to experts — and that needs to change.

“The challenge that we currently face today is that many risks are still assessed in silos, and people don't work together across different disciplines to look at how those risks interact with other risks… and cascade into other systems,” said Sarah Hendel-Blackford, director of systemic risk policy and response at the Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment, or ASRA, a global initiative hosted by the United Nations Foundation that aims to raise awareness about systemic risks to people and the planet and how to tackle them.

For example, said Hendel-Blackford, a pandemic is not only a direct health issue, but has the power to disrupt food systems, education, and the economy, while conflict can also impact human development and mental health, whilst damaging the environment and biodiversity.

Siloed decision-making and institutions are holding the sector back from safeguarding populations from growing interconnected threats, Hendel-Blackford explained. “We need to really recognize that the systems we've built do not serve us anymore. We need new tools, new approaches, and fresh new perspectives.”

ASRA defines systemic risk response, or SRR, as a deliberate action that seeks to mitigate, prepare for, adapt to, or transform away from the harms of systemic risk. On a practical level, that means organizations and governments taking steps to integrate systems thinking alongside robust systemic risk assessments and responses, said Hendel-Blackford. 

Already, several organizations identified by ASRA’s network of over 70 organizations are taking such steps, seeing success in tackling systemic risks unique to their context and creating new opportunities.

Working for climate justice in South Africa

Photo: Climate Justice Charter movement

Photo: Climate Justice Charter movement

South Africa’s Climate Justice Charter Movement, or CJCM, was launched in 2020 to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic and a seven-year drought, both of which were posing multiple significant risks to the country’s population. Water and food resources were depleting alongside agricultural livelihoods and the health of communities. This is compounded by existing inequalities and issues of colonization and poor social justice.  

“A society that is racked with that level of inequality and vulnerability is one which is purely unattuned to be able to address, or even face, these multiple systemic risks,” said Awande Buthelezi, member of the National Coordination Committee of the CJC.

Photo: Climate Justice Charter movement

Photo: Climate Justice Charter movement

The charter, which is yet to be adopted by Parliament, acts as a guide for rethinking South Africa's food systems by focusing on how communities at all levels can transition away from fossil fuels, democratize water, create eco-social housing, and support the creation of green jobs. It was formed by pooling the perspectives of water-stressed communities, faith-based communities, youth, climate scientists, academics, women’s organizations, and activists, and provides a guide for how to reduce systemic risks and improve community resilience, Buthelezi said. So far, it has been signed by over 300 organizations and 6,000 individuals, he added.

Photo: Climate Justice Charter movement

Photo: Climate Justice Charter movement

A path to food security in Quito

Parque la Carolina, Quito, Ecuador. Photo: Camilo Cevallos

Parque la Carolina, Quito, Ecuador. Photo: Camilo Cevallos

In Quito, Ecuador, the local government has also been mobilizing to tackle the risks it faces from socioeconomic exclusion, natural hazards such as earthquakes and floods, vulnerable supply chains, and food insecurity. “We depend heavily on food produced outside the city limits, which means the city must bring in large quantities of food through two main roads located at the northern and southern edges. These routes are often highly exposed to hazards, making the food supply chain vulnerable,” said David Jácome-Polit, former chief resilience officer for the city of Quito. If the roads are compromised, perhaps due to an earthquake or floods, it is estimated the city only has seven days' worth of food, with potentially serious health and economic consequences, he explained.

To work on protecting the city from these risks and the cascading impacts involved, in 2002, the municipality created the Participatory Urban Agriculture Program, which over the past two decades has supported the city’s most vulnerable people in producing their own organic food and income streams via urban farms. The Agri-food Pact of Quito, or PAQ, followed in 2017, committing coalition members from Quito’s public and private sectors, civil society organizations, academia, and cooperative agencies to building better local food policy. The two initiatives together have contributed to an extensive analysis of the vulnerabilities within Quito’s food systems and have identified measures that could safeguard the city from systemic risks via an eco-agri food system.

Plaza Victoria, Quito, Ecuador. Photo: Jorge López

Plaza Victoria, Quito, Ecuador. Photo: Jorge López

As a result, today, Quito has over 4,000 urban gardens and over 200 businesses that promote local, organic food production. Half of that food is for self-subsistence, while the other half is sold or shared to economically support families, said Jácome-Polit. The initiative addresses not only food insecurity but also health, livelihoods, and female empowerment, as the majority of the urban gardens are run by women. “When you start to create these spaces, it's not only that you can change the underlying reasons of why these problems emerge, but it also allows you to create better environments, opportunities for collaboration and partnerships, and more democratic responses to different risks,” he added.

An urban farm located on the northwestern periphery of the Metropolitan District of Quito. Photo: David Jácome-Polit

An urban farm located on the northwestern periphery of the Metropolitan District of Quito. Photo: David Jácome-Polit

Building resilience among vulnerable communities in India

Migrant fisherfolk families pictured outside their homes in Puri, India — a reflection of lives shaped by the sea and challenged by the pandemic. Photo: Satish VM / Jaisingh Nageswaran

Migrant fisherfolk families pictured outside their homes in Puri, India — a reflection of lives shaped by the sea and challenged by the pandemic. Photo: Satish VM / Jaisingh Nageswaran

In India, the Community Action Collab, or CAC, is another example of a collaborative adopting a systemic risk response. It is a humanitarian emergency platform born out of COVID-19 that collaborated with 370 civil society organizations in building resilience among vulnerable communities, such as the urban poor, migrant workers, fisherfolk, street children, and informal workers. The risks these groups face — be it climate disasters or health threats —  can disrupt their livelihoods and ability to live above the poverty line, jeopardizing access to education and health services.

“One health emergency depletes the savings of the entire household. One loss of crops will set everybody back because they have no savings,” said Shama Karkal, domain specialist, CAC. “We want to not only try and build capacity for households to be able to respond, stay safe, but actually adapt and not have to fall behind as much as they do currently.”

Health facilitator Arasamani leads monthly self-help group meetings in the village of Theni, Tamil Nadu. Photo: Satish VM / Jaisingh Nageswaran

Health facilitator Arasamani leads monthly self-help group meetings in the village of Theni, Tamil Nadu. Photo: Satish VM / Jaisingh Nageswaran

With that in mind, CAC convenes partner organizations in different districts of the country to design solutions around a specific problem. “Different kinds of coalitions with different entities to actually respond to vulnerable communities in their time of need is something that we [see] great success with,” said Karkal. For example, during the pandemic, CAC brought together private sector actors and the government to enhance the supply of medical equipment, vaccinations, and generate new business models to solve specific problems, she said.

Children from remote tribal communities receive their COVID-19 vaccines — a moment made possible by dedicated health workers and volunteers under the #COVIDActionCollab’s VaxNow initiative. Photo: Satish VM / Jaisingh Nageswaran

Children from remote tribal communities receive their COVID-19 vaccines — a moment made possible by dedicated health workers and volunteers under the #COVIDActionCollab’s VaxNow initiative. Photo: Satish VM / Jaisingh Nageswaran

Tackling poverty and mental health in Zimbabwe

A grandmother community volunteer in a session with a client at a primary health care clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe. Photo: Costa Juta

A grandmother community volunteer in a session with a client at a primary health care clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe. Photo: Costa Juta

In Zimbabwe, the NGO the Friendship Bench has, for over a decade, been inadvertently tackling the systemic risks of poverty and lack of access to employment while predominantly focusing on providing mental health support. It trains community elders in cognitive behavioral therapy so that they can then offer talk therapy in safe, outdoor, local spaces across the country before progressing clients to peer-led support groups and offering them opportunities to earn, perhaps through handicrafts. Initially starting with one bench, the Friendship Bench has become a national program adopted by the government at scale. In 2024, over 300,000 people visited a Friendship Bench in Zimbabwe, and 80% of those saw meaningful improvement, not just in their mental health but in other aspects of their lives. 

Grandmothers offering counseling sessions at a primary health care clinic in Harare. Photo: Friendship Bench

Grandmothers offering counseling sessions at a primary health care clinic in Harare. Photo: Friendship Bench

“When we started, we thought we were just focusing on clinical conditions, reducing symptoms of depression, but it's actually much broader than that. When you think of global mental health, you have to think systemically because reducing symptoms alone is not sufficient, because very often those symptoms are fueled by social determinants,” said Dixon Chibanda, psychiatrist and founder of The Friendship Bench. Such determinants might include intimate partner violence, poverty, or limited access to education, he said. Alleviating one of these can improve mental health outcomes.

The model has been so successful at addressing multiple risks — mental health, poverty, intimate partner violence, among others — that it is being replicated beyond Zimbabwe in countries such as Malawi, Kenya, Zanzibar, Vietnam, the United States, the United Kingdom, and El Salvador.

Knitting during a peer-led support group at Rujeko DZ Poly Clinic in Harare. Photo: Costa Juta

Knitting during a peer-led support group at Rujeko DZ Poly Clinic in Harare. Photo: Costa Juta

green trees on forest during daytime

ASRA’s Principles for Systemic Risk Assessment and Response

Rather than having to go alone, governments and organizations can begin addressing their risk level with the help of ASRA’s Principles for Systemic Risk Assessment and Response, which guides organizations in assessing their response to certain risks through the lens of 10 principles.

These include:

  • Universal responsibility
  • Non-human sanctity and interdependence
  • Justice 
  • Individual and collective agency 
  • Complexity
  • Uncertainty
  • Cross-scale
  • Multiple ways of knowing
  • Compassion
  • Transformation

Responses, supplemented by research from ASRA, then recommend that governments install national and regional systemic risk officers, while corporations and international financial institutions must integrate systemic risk assessments into procurement and lending decisions.

ASRA is also launching an open-source and web-based tool in June, said Hendel-Blackford. This will allow policymakers, CSOs, and organizations to perform a risk analysis on any given issue and map out critical systemic actions to respond.

All of these examples, said Hendel-Blackford, put the most vulnerable at the heart of their response and address multiple risks from a systemic standpoint. “They all have a really sound understanding of how risks combine and spill over and affect multiple systems,” she explained, adding that they respond in a way that prevents those harms and also leads to benefits for both people and nature.

At a time of rapid change within the sector, the message, said Hendel-Blackford, is that the world has an invitation to do things differently and radically rethink risk. Taking a systemic risk approach, she said, rather than one that is siloed and rigid, is a transformative way to potentially address the current challenges and create new opportunities.

To read about more systemic responses to global risks, visit  https://www.asranetwork.org/stories

SPONSORED BY