The climate development milestones to watch in 2025

JANUARY

On Jan. 20, President-elect Donald Trump will take to the podium and be sworn in as the president of the United States. The gears of the climate development world are already spinning to catch up with the changes he’s expected to usher in.

Experts say that we could see a general shift away from the newly established focus on climate change among multilateral development banks. “I’m interested to see how the MDBs, and particularly the World Bank, will behave under the Trump Administration,” said Juan Pablo Hoffmaister, associate vice president of global engagement and partnerships at the Environmental Defense Fund.

Trump has also sworn to once again leave the Paris Agreement. The exit will take one year, which means that the U.S. will still be legally obligated to carry out its Paris duties through 2025, but Trump’s intention has signaled a general feeling that the rest of the world will have to battle global warming without help from the U.S.

“I think the exit of the United States from the Paris Agreement will change the dynamics of climate finance and climate funding,” said Vijaya Ramachandran, a nonresident fellow at the Center for Global Development. “And in Europe, we are seeing similar trends in the sense that there’s a shift away from a climate-focused agenda, and one geared more towards growth and jobs.”

Jan. 20-24, members of the World Economic Forum will gather in Davos, Switzerland, under the theme “collaboration for the intelligent age.” While the theme goes beyond climate, one of the topics will be safeguarding the planet, which focuses on how to deploy more clean technology and address energy challenges. Devex’s Elissa Miolene will be on hand to cover everything — say hi if you’ll be walking the halls as well.

FEBRUARY

The official deadline for countries to submit their nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, falls this month. NDCs outline national ambitions to keep the planet under 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. A few countries have already submitted their contributions, including Brazil and the United Kingdom.

“February is the deadline,” said Hoffmaister. But he — like most other experts — doesn’t expect to see most countries submit by then.

People are working behind the scenes to try and increase the efficiency of negotiations by combining climate contribution discussions with nature and adaptation discussions. The United Nations Development Programme, which supports 128 countries in preparing their NDCs, is trying to get them to align their climate commitments (NDCs) with their biodiversity and nature commitments (national biodiversity strategies and action plans, or NBSAPs). NBSAPs were due last year at the U.N. biodiversity conference, or COP16, in Cali, Colombia, but many countries did not submit them.

“We are going to the countries doing their NDCs and saying let’s do an NDC that is integrated and aligned with the NBSAP,” said Marcos Neto, director of UNDP's Sustainable Finance Hub. “Let’s get the two together.”

Neto is hopeful about this move — after all, it simplifies the process, “rather than get a phone call in the morning to talk about the NDC and a phone call in the evening to talk about the NBSAP, which is usually answered by the same person.”

On Feb. 23, turn to the German elections to see how many votes the far-right faction, Alternative for Germany — or AfD — receives. The conservative party, Christian Democratic Union — or CDU — is likely to win again, and they have said that they will not form a coalition with AfD. But it’s unclear if they will pick the social democrats or the green party as their junior partner.

German politics — given that it is the largest economy in Europe and the biggest donor to climate action — have a significant influence on climate finance. The European Union submits just one NDC rather than country-by-country, and Germany is likely to have a lot of influence over the EU’s ambitions, said Neto.

From Feb. 25-27, biodiversity experts will be meeting up in Rome to address the unfinished business from the United Nations COP16 Convention on Biological Diversity, or CBD, in Cali, Colombia, in October 2024. The conference failed to get a quorum on financing and resource mobilization.

“If we had a main outcome that we’re looking for, finance for the 30 by 30 goal would be it,” said Rachel Jetel, co-director of the Systems Change Lab, a collaborative at the World Resources Institute focused on monitoring and accelerating transformational change.

One of the main issues at the COP16 continuation will be the digital sequence information, or DSI, financing mechanism. DSI is a general term to refer to genetic resources that are sequenced from the natural world and made available online for research. In Cali, policymakers decided to create what is known as the Cali Fund. Now they have to agree on where it is housed and how it’s managed, said Sarah Wyatt, senior biodiversity specialist at the Global Environment Facility.

I will be on the ground in Rome covering these meetings. Reach out if you would like to meet up!

The Global Environment Facility, or GEF, will be working on its replenishment cycle throughout the year. It is set to have four meetings, all to discuss their programmatic approach and decide how money will be collected and allocated. The first internal meetings will begin in late February. The cycle ends on July 1, 2026.

MARCH

The Petersberg Climate Dialogue, which was launched in 2010 by former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, is set to take place again this year, though the exact dates remain unclear. The dialogue brings together select countries to prepare for negotiations at the COP30 summit in November.

This conversation is one of the first to set the tone for the success of COP30. Experts say that anything that is likely to happen in November is discussed and largely finalized between the months of March and June. By the time we all arrive in Belém, there’s no more time for strategizing, said Avinash Persaud, special adviser on climate change to the president of the Inter-American Development Bank.

On the philanthropic side of things, keep a close eye on Bezos Earth Fund, which has plans to increase investment in artificial intelligence applications for climate and nature in three different areas, according to Kelly Levin, the organization’s chief of science, data, and systems change.

They will be looking to improve the conservation of biodiversity, enhance and modernize electric grids, and develop alternative proteins. The fund is doing some grantmaking around early-stage research and development for greenhouse gas removal as well, including direct air capture and storage as well as ocean-based technologies and methane-specific storage techniques.

Other events in March:

• Sustainable Energy for All Global Forum, Barbados. March 12-13.

• Climate and Clean Air Conference, Brasília, Brazil. March 16-25.

• Ghana Regional Climate Week, Ghana. Date TBD.

• G7 Ministerial Summit, Canada. Date TBD.

APRIL

Between April 21-26, much of the development world will gather in Washington, D.C. for the World Bank and International Monetary Fund’s Spring Meetings. Climate finance will undoubtedly be a priority. You can expect low- and middle-income nations to push for faster and more accessible funding. Experts say that these meetings could set the tone for the year’s grand finale of COP30. Devex will also be on the ground.

“Climate has spilled over into the spring meetings and into the annual meetings and into UNGA. So I think the spring meetings could be a key launching pad for something that will then ferment at UNGA and get finalized in Belém,” said Persaud. “The scope for refining things at COP itself is not great.” “Whatever happens at COP will need to be well on its way in the spring.”

Experts also say that we will get a sense of the positions of MDBs at the Spring Meetings. “This is when we’ll see whether the MDBs are ready to continue on the climate agenda that they have been publicly saying they’re committed to,” said Hoffmaister.

Other events in April:

• National Adaptation Plans Expo, Zambia. April 8-11.

• 24th Session of the U.N. Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues, New York. April 21-May 2.

MAY

From May 27-29, the Global Sustainable Islands Summit will be held in St. Kitts and Nevis in the Caribbean. The summit is meant to be a knowledge exchange on sustainable development for rural, remote, and island regions. But this year, experts say an agreement could emerge from the summit. One item on the list is how to better project subnational island jurisdictions from climate impacts. For example, jurisdictions such as Mayotte or Hawaii, which are part of larger continental nations and therefore have less access to development funding, but face some of the worst impacts of climate change.

A lesser-known effort is also in the works this year. Experts are keeping an eye on the Global Solidarity Levies Taskforce, which is looking into feasible options for climate levies. The effort, first launched at COP28 in 2023, is led by France, Kenya, and Barbados, and includes efforts to introduce or increase levies on fossil fuels and carbon damages, fossil fuel windfall profits, air passengers, and maritime trade.

As of Nov. 22, 2024, 17 other countries had joined the task force. The supporters of this movement are hoping to increase momentum around finding more innovative sources of funding and trying to get more countries to join.

Other events in May:

• World Circular Economy Forum, São Paulo, Brazil. May 13-16.

JUNE

The annual intersessional meetings of UNFCCC will take place in Bonn between June 16-26, well known as a forum to discuss some of the unfinished business of COP29. That includes the global stocktake, as well as adaptation and mitigation financing, and will set the tone for COP30.

Policymakers will come together in Berlin between June 11-13 to discuss the year’s most important acronym: NDCs. The Global NDC Conference is largely a knowledge-sharing session between government officials, researchers, civil society, and the private sector to help develop effective commitments.

Experts are all keeping a close eye on the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, or FfD, In Seville, Spain, between June 30 and July 3.

“Seville is a big opportunity to adjust the progress towards the SDGs,” said Salomé Lehtman, EU policy lead at Mercy Corps. “It's not climate-specific, but climate has a role in it, and especially with the kind of failure of COP a lot of eyes are looking at the FfD.”

Though no date has been set, an Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution is expected sometime this summer. The last one ended last November without an agreement.

The goal is to develop an international legally binding instrument to address plastic pollution that could include direct financing from the World Bank and the International Finance Corporation. The World Bank is already exploring new regional programs to curb plastic pollution in West Africa and the Pacific Islands.

Other events in June:

• Hamburg Sustainability Conference, Hamburg, Germany. June 2-3.

• United Nations Ocean Conference, Nice, France. June 9-13.

• London Climate Action Week, London. June 21-29.

JULY

The United Nations High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development will take place between July 14-23 in New York. Countries come together every year to discuss their progress on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the SDGs.

Regional Climate Week in Colombia, which hasn’t yet set exact dates, is one of many regional climate weeks popping up across the globe — in what some say is an effect of disillusionment with the big COP conferences. Others say it's a spillover as the climate space attracts more attention. “Some of these have been kind of hit and miss in the past,” said Levin from the Bezos Earth Fund. “Some are quite impactful, others not so much.” Check here for updates on all the regional climate weeks.

AUGUST

In late August, the final discussions ahead of COP30 will take place in Belém, Brazil. Arguably, these are more important than the official summit in November. Just about everything we see in November will already have been discussed during this pre-COP summit, and this is the last chance for countries to align on contentious issues like loss and damage funding and adaptation financing.

SEPTEMBER

From Sept. 2-4, the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme, or SPREP, holds its biennial governing council meeting. We could see regional action plans emerge to address environmental challenges, partnerships between Pacific Island countries or institutions, and potentially agreements on securing funding and resources to support environmental initiatives.

Between Sept. 9 and Sept. 23, countries will gather in New York for the United Nations General Assembly, or UNGA. Climate will feature prominently, with many countries spotlighting their NDCs and climate finance commitments. Devex will host a series of events on the sidelines of UNGA, so stay tuned for coverage.

New York Climate Week will kick off a few days later on Sept. 21-28. Last year, this event had record attendance, with many people even choosing to attend it rather than COP29 in Baku. The week is especially important for private and public sector events and provides a chance for major corporations to make climate pledges.

The Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction, also known as the BBNJ or the High Seas Treaty, is a United Nations agreement protecting ocean biodiversity beyond national borders. It’s been open for signatures from countries since September 2023 and will close on Sept. 20.

Wyatt said that the Global Environment Facility was asked to serve as part of the financial mechanism for BBNJ. “It has taken a really long time to get this agreement,” said Wyatt. “Now we’re really trying to get it ratified and figure out the details.”

While countries should have already submitted NDCs by now, Neto said Sept. 30 is really the last chance to send them in ahead of October discussions and COP30 in November.

OCTOBER

The 2025 G20 Climate and Environmental Sustainability Working Group Ministerial Meeting will take place Oct. 9 in Cape Town, South Africa. This is a lead-up meeting to the official G20 summit, in Johannesburg, from Nov. 22-23.

South Africa is expected to seek an increase in climate finance for low- and middle-income countries, address debt burdens, and discuss ways to work more closely with other African nations and global south countries. Expect this meeting to focus on developing better frameworks for addressing the debt crisis, of which Africa is at the center.

The World Bank and International Monetary Fund annual meetings, from Oct. 17-19, will be a hub for discussions between the private and public sectors on how to identify climate challenges and develop policy reforms. We could see a slight shift away from climate change this year due to changes in the Trump administration’s priorities, experts say. Devex will be on the ground to provide coverage.

NOVEMBER

Everything for the last 10 months is in preparation for the COP30 in Belém, Brazil, between Nov. 10-21. This small Amazonian town is likely to be overwhelmed by climate diplomats, advocates, media, and corporations. Rumors are circulating that the city will turn to cruise ships to house excess guests. Many organizations said that they were cutting back attendance at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, last year in expectation of a bigger COP30 in Brazil. Devex reporters will be on the ground to provide coverage.

NDCs are the name of the game this year. Neto said that they are hoping to be able to claim that the NDCs outline policies that would keep the world on track for 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming for the first time. This doesn’t mean that the globe will actually keep to that temperature — that ship has pretty much sailed. What it means is that each country has outlined plans that would, if executed, keep us to that target.

Nature, nature-based solutions, and biodiversity will also be headlining this year, largely due to the location and an agreement between Brazil and Colombia, the host of the biodiversity COP16 last year, to work together.

The loss and damage fund was finally formalized at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan in November 2024, which means it will be able to start financing projects early this year. So far, out of the more than $730 million pledged to the fund, it has only actually received $69 million, according to Lehtman at Mercy Corps. More funds are expected to materialize early this year, but some experts are concerned about how much it will be prioritized by donor nations.

“The fact that loss and damage was not included in the NCQG still raises some questions about its long-term viability,” said Lehtman.

A single paragraph, added at the 11th hour of COP29, saved the conference from complete failure. That paragraph outlined what officials call the “Road to Belém,” a vague effort to bridge the gap between the $300 billion pledged to climate action and the $1.3 trillion needed to address climate damage and risks, all in the next 11 months leading up to COP30. The effort remains in the hands of the COP29 presidency, Azerbaijan, until the handover at the opening of COP30. So far, no one has heard any chatter on how this is moving forward.

The official G20 summit will take place on Nov. 22-23 in Johannesburg with a focus on debt, accelerating climate finance for low- and middle-income nations, and energy transition initiatives.

DECEMBER

The United Nations Environment Assembly, or UNEA, will host its seventh session, or UNEA-7, from Dec. 8-12 in Nairobi, Kenya. UNEA is the world's highest-level decision-making body for the environment and has a membership of 193 member states. UNEA-7 is expected to approve the medium-term strategy for 2026-2029, which provides a road map for achieving the organization's goals for the environment, and the United Nations Environment Programme’s program of work and budget for 2026-2027.

Other events in December:

• Dec. 12 marks the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement.

THE NEXT NEW YEAR

A little something to look forward to: On Jan. 1, 2026, the carbon border adjustment mechanism, or CBAM, on goods coming into the European Union will become mandatory. Whether low-income countries are ready for it is an open question.